mk1-forum.net

This is an interesting and complicated conversation. There are a lot of variables. I agree with Mark about supply and demand. The trouble with MG's is that; A. they built too many of them, and B. they are building heritage shells. In the 80's and 90's there were plenty of decent MGB's on the market that could be MOT'd and driven and enjoyed. Trouble is that 20 years on all of those original B's are a lot ropier now and a lot of them will need an expensive restoration. Compare the cost of restoration with the cost of a heritage shell. There are so many MGB's out there now and the fact that they are making new ones just means that the supply far out weighs the demand and the value plummets. Now the market is completely worthless. I have stacks of old MG parts that I struggle to give away.

The mk1 mini however is a limited commodity. It also enjoys a certain status which isn't shared with many other classics. I know plenty of people with a lot of money who would happily park a mk1 mini next to there classic Aston or Ferrari. The same cannot be said for an MGB or Midget or even an A35, A40 or Morris Minor. I think that appreciating value is a good thing, but that is just my opinion. There is no heritage shell for the mk1 and i really hope that it stays that way. A heritage shell would ruin the mk1 in my opinion. As for the mk3 and onwards they will never be hugely valuable.

Good discussion though. Cheers,

Daniel

dhenry wrote:As for the mk3 and onwards they will never be hugely valuable.

Given what's already being paid for a lot of them i think many would argue that they are already hugely valuable. 'Hugely' is of course a subjective term though. I can't believe what people will pay for ropey old run of the mill mini mayfairs with nasty wheels and a big exhaust etc, but each to their own.

the breadth of the appeal is of course a big part of the Mini, and as you say they appeal to those with minimal means (i.e. me) and serious collectors alike, and we are all after the same cars, so 'they' dictate the prices. This is of course why I don't own a 250 SWB or a Lotus 7 Series 2, so why should Minis be different? it's not just the gulf between the 'cheap car' and the collectors piece - have you seen the price of Bubble cars? now they are scary prices for what you get! people into cars will be interested in interesting and iconic vehicles, hence 'conventional' cars like Minors /1100 lack the appeal to so many collectors 50 years later.

Escorts, VW campers, Minis, lotus elans, what's next? Sierra Cosworths have a way to go yet, Group B era hot hatches, maybe Nissan Figaros!?!

There is a Sunbeam Alger (Alpine with all Tiger running gear) near me which needs paint and trim, but is cheap (well, you could pay more for an 'average' Mk1 850) and I was very tempted - you can pay 25k+ for a plastic Cobra or the same for a genuine '60s Tiger (not mint, but decent). Where is the logic in that?

Worlds gone mad........

Pandora wrote:There is a Sunbeam Alger (Alpine with all Tiger running gear) near me which needs paint and trim, but is cheap

Oohh, id love a tiger, my old bosses wife had one from new (she chopped a downton tuned 997 cooper in against it)

she ran it for years, and made the fatal mistake of leaving it parked with both doors open, it sagged and broke its back (it was fairly crusty by this point), so it was weighed in.

she then bought an xr2, and by the time it came into stock the mk2 was out, she didnt want one of those, so the ford dealer hunted down an unregistered mk1 for her, which was put on a 'c' plate. years later she offered it to me and i turned her down - it was really tidy! gah! apparently it was the last mk1 xr2 registered in the uk, either way ive never seen another on a c plate

Ah Cosworths....last year I sunk vast amounts into restoring dads Escort Cosworth, (why I sold JFO actually)...the Cosworth was the biggest amount of dead money ever. In real terms i'd have made more selling it rough than as a decent runner...the value isn't there and imho won't be either. For some reason they are not iconic and despite what some may think , if it's not pre Jan 1st 1980 that makes 80% of classic buyer uninterested...


I've said before...to own some of the rarer cars you either have to be well off or retired with a final salary pension scheme..

dhenry wrote: The mk1 mini however is a limited commodity. It also enjoys a certain status which isn't shared with many other classics.

You've hit the nail on the head, I don't think you can put these cars in the same bracket as the Mini. Put it this way they never made a world famous movie (and a sequel) starring an MG or an A40 where the cars are talked about more than the actors !! You don not see young uns driving around in or home modifying A35's as you do still see today with Minis (I've seen quite a few this week driven by kids !) You don't see Morris Minors in the middle of clothes shops or in science museums as you do with Minis or on the front of T shirts in high street stores. You don't constantly get reminded in the media of how successful the MGB was in motorsport as you still do with the Mini (mainly due to BMW), The Mini is still an icon compared to all these other cars just as the VW Camper is with alot of younger people , I can't see it falling out of favour with the British public ,not to mention internationally and I reckon values will continue to climb for many years to come, whether that's a good thing or not is another matter.

dhenry wrote:

The mk1 mini however is a limited commodity.

It also enjoys a certain status which isn't shared with many other classics.

Pete wrote:

You've hit the nail on the head,

I don't think you can put these cars in the same bracket as the Mini.

You are both so right, and then there is the motor sport side of it, correct me if I am wrong,
but I dont think ANY car (sports or standard)
have EVER won SOO many races, and keep on doing so, to this day.

Supply and demand market is of course no longer just UK influenced - there is the Japanese factor.......take a look at all these Mini's for sale in Japan and many of the owners now buy their 'rare' early parts on UK ebay.
Cars:
http://www.turtle-trading.co.jp/stockca ... ntry_code=

http://www.turtle-trading.co.jp/stockca ... ntry_code=

http://www.turtle-trading.co.jp/stockca ... ntry_code=

Parts, etc:
http://www.turtle-trading.co.jp/s_cart/list.php

(Even a couple of A30/A35)
http://www.turtle-trading.co.jp/stockca ... ntry_code=
ADO 16
http://www.turtle-trading.co.jp/stockca ... ntry_code=

There is also of course the growing interest in the classic Mini in the USA, awareness has much increased amongst US motoring enthusiasts in the last 10 years due to the sales success and marketing of the BMW MINI (now the biggest market for the MINI ahead of the UK), most US New MINI forums, shows and clubs also promote the classic enthusiast interest and so further fuel demand for classic Mini imports:
http://www.northamericanmotoring.com/fo ... i-talk-48/

http://www.motoringfile.com/2012/04/23/ ... ored-mini/

http://www.motoringfile.com/2012/04/23/ ... ssic-mini/

http://www.minimania.com/

dhenry wrote:
As for the mk3 and onwards they will never be hugely valuable.

Pandora wrote:
Given what's already being paid for a lot of them i think many would argue that they are already hugely valuable.

And on this one, I am with Pandora, this reshell thing, will push people in 2 directions.

The people that want (and can afford) a GENUINE car, will never settle for a reshelled one.
And as no one has found a hidden stash, of BMC/BL Cooper / S / 1275GT bodies, these cars will always end up with a std body,
either from another low miler / low value / rustfree car, or a new BMH body,
which in both cases, can be spottet miles away = no during resto pics.

The market in Japan has been as flat as a fart for years now. It is now viable to buy cars in Japan & bring them back here. Remember, the Japanese were paying the sort of prices we moan about now back in the late 1980 & early 1990's.

In the US there was a small bubble of interest in early Minis in the late 1990's but that more or less popped when the new BMW one was released. The current market for Minis in the US is tiny. Like Japan, prices in the US haven't increased much in 10 years.

The main driver of price all over the world in recent years has been the UK market. This is in my opinion due to a few factors, some I have touched on earlier others I haven't. Another interesting one being the way that since the interest rate dropped to around .5% in 2009 or whenever it was. People who are lucky enough to have disposable income have been investing it in things not banks. One of the major beneficiaries of this is the Classic car market. This has driven the prices ever upwards in the hope that speculative investors can beat the system.

How many times have you seen a car sold to a dealer who moves it on to another dealer at a profit & then maybe the same again a few weeks later, only for that original bargain finally offered by some flash classic car dealer at ridiculous money. The truth is that if people who have cash burning a hole in their pocket see enough S's at £30,000 they think that is the "fair" price. There comes a time when this spiral has to stop.

Before our current financial crisis how many times did you hear people say "House prices can't keep on going up like this for much longer". I know I did, but we all hoped, in the face of common sense that things would carry on the same for ever. You may remember that once we all ran out of money the wheels fell off surprisingly quickly.

As I have said throughout, I believe that the relatively small percentage of very high end Minis will be an excellent investment for a good few years to come, but to believe that this massive recent bubble will continue to inflate indefinitely is simply wrong. Throughout history from Tulip Mania ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania ) in the 1600's to property booms throughout Europe in the 2000's it is proven that when a price increases exponentially there is only one thing that is going to happen sooner or later.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline ... bbles.html

A GREAT BIG POP!

You may believe that as a Mini is an iconic car & the Italian job is still popular that Minis will be immune to this immovable law of economics. I personally doubt it.

I have never bought a Mini or any part thereof as an investment, I have bought them because I wanted them for what they are & could afford them. Same as I have never bought a house as an investment, I have bought it because I want to live there & I could afford it.

Personally speaking, I won't be buying any more Minis in the foreseeable future because as far as I am concerned the vast majority of decent ones are far to expensive & do not represent good value for money. I would therefore choose to spend my hard earned on something else.

In the future I will be quite prepared to eat humble pie if I am wrong, but I simply don't believe that the inflation in the early Mini market that we have seen over the last few years can continue at the same or even a similar rate for that much longer.

mk1 wrote: The current market for Minis in the US is tiny. Like Japan, prices in the US haven't increased much in 10 years.

How many times have you seen a car sold to a dealer who moves it on to another dealer at a profit & then maybe the same again a few weeks later .

I agree about the U.S and Canada. Considering how few early cars come up for sale they don't fetch very much ! And yes the Mk1 I sold only three weeks ago is for now up for sale again in Brighton at nearly double the price ! You're right people are looking for ways to make money other than having cash sat in the bank earning nothing, just moving cars down south seems to pay dividends !

That's cos nart pits and't mills are arl closed darn us simple northern folk av no other way of feeding't bairns than't selling ar few possessions. After that it's poor ouse for all o'us.

mk1 wrote:The market in Japan has been as flat as a fart for years now. It is now viable to buy cars in Japan & bring them back here. Remember, the Japanese were paying the sort of prices we moan about now back in the late 1980 & early 1990's.

In the US there was a small bubble of interest in early Minis in the late 1990's but that more or less popped when the new BMW one was released. The current market for Minis in the US is tiny. Like Japan, prices in the US haven't increased much in 10 years.

The main driver of price all over the world in recent years has been the UK market. This is in my opinion due to a few factors, some I have touched on earlier others I haven't. Another interesting one being the way that since the interest rate dropped to around .5% in 2009 or whenever it was. People who are lucky enough to have disposable income have been investing it in things not banks. One of the major beneficiaries of this is the Classic car market. This has driven the prices ever upwards in the hope that speculative investors can beat the system.

How many times have you seen a car sold to a dealer who moves it on to another dealer at a profit & then maybe the same again a few weeks later, only for that original bargain finally offered by some flash classic car dealer at ridiculous money. The truth is that if people who have cash burning a hole in their pocket see enough S's at £30,000 they think that is the "fair" price. There comes a time when this spiral has to stop.

Before our current financial crisis how many times did you hear people say "House prices can't keep on going up like this for much longer". I know I did, but we all hoped, in the face of common sense that things would carry on the same for ever. You may remember that once we all ran out of money the wheels fell off surprisingly quickly.

As I have said throughout, I believe that the relatively small percentage of very high end Minis will be an excellent investment for a good few years to come, but to believe that this massive recent bubble will continue to inflate indefinitely is simply wrong. Throughout history from Tulip Mania ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania ) in the 1600's to property booms throughout Europe in the 2000's it is proven that when a price increases exponentially there is only one thing that is going to happen sooner or later.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline ... bbles.html

A GREAT BIG POP!

You may believe that as a Mini is an iconic car & the Italian job is still popular that Minis will be immune to this immovable law of economics. I personally doubt it.

I have never bought a Mini or any part thereof as an investment, I have bought them because I wanted them for what they are & could afford them. Same as I have never bought a house as an investment, I have bought it because I want to live there & I could afford it.

Personally speaking, I won't be buying any more Minis in the foreseeable future because as far as I am concerned the vast majority of decent ones are far to expensive & do not represent good value for money. I would therefore choose to spend my hard earned on something else.

In the future I will be quite prepared to eat humble pie if I am wrong, but I simply don't believe that the inflation in the early Mini market that we have seen over the last few years can continue at the same or even a similar rate for that much longer.

What I'll add is I think large(r) engined classics are pretty much doomed. I'm not referring to the uber high end stuff like 250 Ferrari's, D Types etc etc. They're for the serious players.

But the Rover P5/6's, Yanks, Jags, Jensen's etc etc will be utterly unwanted when the price of a litre hits the £1.80 mark. In fact I think 1 1.8 MGB only does 22 odd to the gallon so they'll go the same way.

I have a small collection of microcars and a pre war Riley racing car. The engine in the Riley is 1500 and it does 30 MPG usually. I also have a Mk3 S.

As for S's I think they will climb and climb. The old stalwart luddites can moan over their pints at the bar about the time when you could get a one owner Mk 1 S with original paint for 700 quid. People do want S's. They are an utter legend. They go like stink. Are fun to drive. Parts availability is superb. The image likewise is peerless. Everyone desires a genuine Cooper S. They were the bees knees back then and are now. They have that celebrity (when celebrities had class..) flavour.

Yes the Mk1 is the one to have but the 2 and 3 is hot on its heels. I personally didn't want to shell out 25k plus on a Mk1. I actually fancied a Mk3 but it had to be in bronze yellow for that 70's funky look. I found a good'n in the end. I'm well pleased.

Can't disagree with much of that. You'd have to be a real die hard to shell out the wonga to keep say a classic Yank muscle car on the road nowadays. Having said that , I say that every time a huge Range Rooney blasts past me on the motorway doing 90 ! Am I right in saying fuel prices don't seem to have changed people's driving habits ? (especially my Mrs !! )

KR200 wrote: a pre war Riley racing car. The engine in the Riley is 1500 and it does 30 MPG usually.

any pictures / details?

guru_1071 wrote:

KR200 wrote: a pre war Riley racing car. The engine in the Riley is 1500 and it does 30 MPG usually.

any pictures / details?

Seeing as you asked here's some pics. It's a 1936 TT Special. Based on a 12/4 Monaco chassis.

They were very advanced for the time. Riley's had a twin cam 4 cyl cross flow hemi engine in '29 called the 1100cc 9. The came the best.The 1500cc 12 (old 12 HP measurement) . Very tuneable. A bit like the A series with regard to parts/tuning availability and development over the years. Many have been blown and go like stink. Mine's N/A.

I looked at a few home builds which were crud. So had my car built professionally over a year or two. Looking back it was very good value. The Krauts love pre war Riley's. So do I! A pretty car..

As a Kraut, I must admit that it si a nice car

KR200 wrote:

guru_1071 wrote:

KR200 wrote: a pre war Riley racing car. The engine in the Riley is 1500 and it does 30 MPG usually.

any pictures / details?

Seeing as you asked here's some pics. It's a 1936 TT Special. Based on a 12/4 Monaco chassis.

They were very advanced for the time. Riley's had a twin cam 4 cyl cross flow hemi engine in '29 called the 1100cc 9. The came the best.The 1500cc 12 (old 12 HP measurement) . Very tuneable. A bit like the A series with regard to parts/tuning availability and development over the years. Many have been blown and go like stink. Mine's N/A.

I looked at a few home builds which were crud. So had my car built professionally over a year or two. Looking back it was very good value. The Krauts love pre war Riley's. So do I! A pretty car..

very nice.

my dad has a couple of 30's rileys, inc a nine that my grandad bought in 1956, it provides reliable fun motoring, the only shame is that i am too tall to get behind the wheel, so ive never driven it

I've been rumbled

The old stalwart luddites can moan over their pints at the bar about the time when you could get a one owner Mk 1 S with original paint for 700 quid.

by way of comparison:

http://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C299408

I like it!

Now if it was a basic Mk1 with that good a shell you'd be looking at 3 times the price (at least) from a dealer (like for like comparison) is it 1/3 of the fun?

Pandora wrote:by way of comparison:

http://www.carandclassic.co.uk/car/C299408

I like it!

Now if it was a basic Mk1 with that good a shell you'd be looking at 3 times the price (at least) from a dealer (like for like comparison) is it 1/3 of the fun?

Thats nice but for the question 1/3 of the fun, I have to say yes, nothing beats a Mini, once you get behind the wheel