Has the electric car bubble burst?

[MiNiKiN]

I heard today of someone whose daughter has an electric F-pace and its had two sets of tyres in the past two years !

Wow, we shall envy her. I heard from my grandma's sister in law, who's friend's uncle told her of someone who needs set of tyres every weekend...

dsc00269-55c755e5021ed.jpg

[MiNiKiN]

In terms of reliability, simplified: what is not there cannot go wrong. The BEV simply has fewer mechanical components that could fail, and roughly the same amount of electrical circuitry doohickeys. As with all ICE vehicles, the BEV reliability varies from manufacturer to manufacturer and model to model. Full stop!

An excerpt from the annual ADAC [N.B.: the German breakdown service] breakdown statistics:

<<ADAC: The most frequent causes of breakdowns for combustion and electric cars.
The ADAC has evaluated its breakdowns in 2021. The trend of previous years continues: the 12V starter battery remains the number one cause of breakdowns.
At just over 46 percent, the battery is the most frequent cause of breakdowns. The value is almost identical to that from 2020 (46.2 to 46.3 in 2020). In second place are breakdowns caused by the engine and engine management with 15.5 percent, followed by other causes such as bodywork, steering or chassis with 14.8 percent and alternator, starter, wiring with 10.3 percent.

More electric cars break down

The number of breakdowns recorded for electric cars has risen significantly, according to the ADAC. In 2020, the ADAC recorded just over 9,000 breakdowns for e-cars. In 2021, the figure was over 25,000, but this increase in breakdowns is not unusual given the significant rise in the number of new registrations. Especially since the first electric cars are now entering an age when cars in general, even those with combustion engines, are becoming less reliable.

Much more exciting than the absolute numbers, however, are the causes of breakdowns in e-cars. Here we see that the number one cause of breakdowns for e-cars was also the starter battery. Specific electric car components such as the battery, electric motor or charging technology, on the other hand, are rarely responsible for breakdowns, as the ADAC emphasises.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)>>>

[MiNiKiN]

My debunk of your statements in colour:

I work with vehicle design, mostly with chassis/suspension. So obviously an expert in cradle-to-cradle energy consumption and CO2e emission of ICE- and BEV-vehicles. Or not so much?
2 of the biggest emissions from cars are brake dust and tyre dust/particles (see below for CO2 emissions, and check-out "green ncap").
Brake dust can be less for electric cars due to re-generative braking. It IS MUCH less in comparison. Simply because E-cars hardly use mechanical braking, and if only for short periods at low speeds or emergency braking. Secondly you mix up different kinds of emmisions. Brake and tyre dust are particle emissions. Different kettle of fish. AND: Don't forget NOx, another one of many more on ICEs.
BUT, tyre dust is worse, due to increased weight! (We're seeing electric cars weighing 2.5-3.0 tonnes and more..!!)
The tyre- dust/particles are a much bigger health danger/concern than CO2.... comparing apples with apples: a standard size BEV weighs approx. 300kg more than its ICE equivalent. An Audi Q7 with combustion engine weighs ~2.3 tons, the Audi E-Tron Quattro 2.6 tons. VW Golf 8 weighs +1.3 tons and the VW ID3 +1.7 tons. So I cannot relate where you take your weight figures from. Electric Hummer maybe?

People are also waking-up to the fact that the CO2 emissions of electric cars are very often worse than ICE cars:
1) more CO2 to produce the car; Thats correct
2) if it's an SUV type electric car it produces more CO2 through it's life (there are lots of arguments about how much CO2 from the electric generating source, but anyway, we don't have enough wind or solar if all cars are electric... ) exactly like the ICE SUV car (apples vs. apples)
3) more CO2 to re-cycle at the end-of-life. That is not true. In sum, considering batteries are re-used (2nd-life!) or re-cycled the net sum of BEV is better. Simply because all the energy that went into fuel production, cannot be re-cycled but has to be considered in the calculation of course.

Plus, who controls most of the lithium, rare-earth metals, and other materials essential for electric cars....? Who controls their use in ICE-engines, phones, computers,...YES, your combustion engine uses loads of them too.

The most environmentally-friendly car is the one that you already own....True if you hardly drive it. Other wise a clear NO, it is not. Depending on emissions of said existing ICE car, and the emissions during production of a new electric car break even happens after a mileage of 10 -30kmiles. (see attached graph)

0 YUY9hSQ5VNentePF.png

from this scientific and un-biased report
https://medium.com/@maximilian.zoller/i ... 6eb0d78487

[Andrew1967]

I heard today of someone whose daughter has an electric F-pace and its had two sets of tyres in the past two years !

Wow, we shall envy her. I heard from my grandma's sister in law, who's friend's uncle told her of someone who needs set of tyres every weekend...

dsc00269-55c755e5021ed.jpg

I’m not sure if you are taking the piss here ( well actually I do think you are) but the one I said about is a true story and if you think two sets of tyres in two years for a normal use road car is acceptable then I guess you must have a lot more money than us to throw away. As for the impact on the environment for the production of said tyres and also the disposal of them, which is another big problem in itself.

Not sure why you are trying to extol the virtues of EV’s on a classic car forum to be honest. You will never convince the vast majority of us on here that it’s the way forward.

[MiNiKiN]

I heard today of someone whose daughter has an electric F-pace and its had two sets of tyres in the past two years !

Wow, we shall envy her. I heard from my grandma's sister in law, who's friend's uncle told her of someone who needs set of tyres every weekend...

dsc00269-55c755e5021ed.jpg

I’m not sure if you are taking the piss here ( well actually I do think you are) but the one I said about is a true story and if you think two sets of tyres in two years for a normal use road car is acceptable then I guess you must have a lot more money than us to throw away. As for the impact on the environment for the production of said tyres and also the disposal of them, which is another big problem in itself.

Not sure why you are trying to extol the virtues of EV’s on a classic car forum to be honest. You will never convince the vast majority of us on here that it’s the way forward.

Sorry, no offence. Yes, I have been taking the P. Besides mickey taking my messagge was: tire wear very much depends on how you drive.
So tell me why we don't hear of the many upset EV drivers who have to buy a set of tyres every year?

[EDIT:]I could as well ask, why on earth earth I, as a classic car lover, should have to cope with all the half-truths and lies about something many haven't got a fecking clue about. Most is just barroom clichés and tabloid propaganda repeated over and over.

Over the past decade I have really done a lot of research on the matter out of a profession (with a cross-scientific approach, i.e. energy, resources, transport - everything that should be holistically be incorparated in the cluster). Transport and energy generation, etc will change entirely. If you like it or not.
I am not trying the impossiible, i.e. convincing anyone here of anything. If the facts cause your inconvenience - so be it. I just weigh the pros and cons, accept the inevitable and by knowing about it, I am prepared and can adapt to it.
Finally - if I haven't lost you yet - being a petrolhead and classic car afficionado, does not necessarily require you to be against facts and better newer stuff. I am convinced my computer is the better solution, as much as I love my ol typewriter

As much as I don't express my opinion about nerd facts of Mk1's, others should take the same approach about EVs, etc. 'nough said. Tara.

[Exminiman]

My debunk of your statements in colour:
from this scientific and un-biased report
https://medium.com/@maximilian.zoller/i ... 6eb0d78487

https://www.crunchbase.com/person/maximilian-zoller

Assuming this is your Maximillian Zoller ? I am not saying it is wrong, but, I would be careful of taking his report as gospel..

It looks like he is an investment manager with HV Capital...rather than an unbiased academic...

[MiNiKiN]

My debunk of your statements in colour:
from this scientific and un-biased report
https://medium.com/@maximilian.zoller/i ... 6eb0d78487

https://www.crunchbase.com/person/maximilian-zoller

Assuming this is your Maximillian Zoller ? I am not saying it is wrong, but, I would be careful of taking his report as gospel..

It looks like he is an investment manager with HV Capital...rather than an unbiased academic...

I know. I said the report is unbiased and academic - no human is ever unbiased. It's the best readable I could find in little time. Too academic isn't good either, is it.

[Exminiman]

My debunk of your statements in colour:
from this scientific and un-biased report
https://medium.com/@maximilian.zoller/i ... 6eb0d78487

https://www.crunchbase.com/person/maximilian-zoller

Assuming this is your Maximillian Zoller ? I am not saying it is wrong, but, I would be careful of taking his report as gospel..

It looks like he is an investment manager with HV Capital...rather than an unbiased academic...

I know. I said the report is unbiased and academic - no human is ever unbiased. It's the best readable I could find in little time. Too academic isn't good either, is it.

Come on, hes an investment banker.......not a great source is it ?

Not saying its wrong, its just not the best source is it

[MiNiKiN]

Come on, hes an investment banker.......not a great source is it ?

Not saying its wrong, its just not the best source is it

Take it this way, if I - a socialist and anti-capitalist - am refering to the contents of an investment banker, it must be pretty good.

BTW: the EV was killed once, but there's life in the old dog yet
"Who killed the electric car" - shortened film about the GM EV1 in '97
https://youtu.be/l3OnYjP4FTk

[Exminiman]

Come on, hes an investment banker.......not a great source is it ?

Not saying its wrong, its just not the best source is it

Take it this way, if I - a socialist and anti-capitalist - am refering to the contents of an investment banker, it must be pretty good.

I am sure your right

[Andrew1967]

My post was about a fact of two sets of tyres being required in two years.

I understand that many leasing companies offer maintenance packages that include tyres. Now I’m sure there are certain terms as conditions to this but normal wear and tear would be covered and therefore no one would worry about what we would normally consider excessive wear.

However, once the vehicle enters the used car market then that may be more of a problem to some people, as it was to the person concerned.

[111Robin]

No amount of graphs and so called intellectual wisdom will convince me that I will be able to buy a reasonably priced second hand EV with around 30k miles on it and be able to run it over 200k miles as I currently do with my everyday car. Battery efficiency will be drastically reduced (how many EV owners will be bothered following manufacturers recommendations on how to charge/discharge the battery to hopefully maintain its efficiency ?). How will you know when buying one that the motors/batteries are ok ?. Presumably some form of diagnostic test will tell you something but where do you draw the line, 80%/60% efficiency ?. What will a service record tell you, as we are told that the reduced level of servicing required is a great thing ?.
So, carry on trying to convince me that it will all be great and the answer to all of our problems, while not costing us an awful lot more in the long run as we have to throw away cars far sooner in their life cycle than we currently do. At least when an ICE engine fails catastrophically (very rare these days) it can be replaced at reasonable cost. What is the comparable cost if an EV motor fails ?. (and don't tell me it won't ever happen)

[minibitz]

One of my customers works for a company that recently began to update their fleet with MG ZS's.

He was pretty enthusiastic to start with, detailing specs, performance figures etc.

Just prior to Christmas he came in telling a story about a colleague's EV that kept dropping dead at around 50kmph bringing the vehicle to an almost instant halt. Car went back to the dealership several times. Final straw was when it happened again at 80kmph on open road.

The very same thing then happened to my customers car. Pulled away from some lights, got to the middle of an intersection and boof, lights out. Car stuck, can't be started, pushed etc.

Both cars then sat at the dealership for several months waiting for parts to fix as no dealerships here regardless of brand seem to hold any parts stock. Not ideal when NZ is about as far away from anywhere as you can get. They also cancelled further purchases due to these issues, reverting back to ICE models.

Finally nature took care of things. Cars were still at dealership 3 weeks ago when we had flash floods, writing both vehicle off!

[Richspec]

As soon as you got 'MG' i knew this wasnt going to end well.

A friend of mine loved his new (ICE) MG right up to the point it started going wrong and no dealer would touch it! The supplying dealer had gone i think.?
I'm still hearing similiar things so its just the same in the UK.

Back on his Hyundai Hybrid (I think) EV's now and loves them. Perfect for his commute etc.

[rolesyboy]

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... s-23963330#

[111Robin]

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... s-23963330#

He sounds like a dick, he drove it until "the engine went bang", probably would wreck an EV just the same. £2k per year warranty, seriously ?.

[rolesyboy]

I’ve seen a similar thing outside a Toyota dealership. Parked his Land Cruiser outside and had it plastered in vinyl writing spelling out the various problems he had with his engine and gearbox. Sat on the verge for weeks on end. Imagine the dealer principles face when he came to work that day

[JohnA]

Make sure you have your 29 plate I.C.car on order in time as post 1930 cars will rocket in value if the government keeps pursuing this ludicrous E.V. policy.
Someone commented that electric cars are the Betamax of transport

[rolesyboy]

John - this isn't directed at you but as an overarching comment what baffles me is the level of 'received wisdom' from people who haven't actually been in, or lived with an EV. So many of the statements are baseless and found in the ether.
Re the Betamax analogy it was actually a very good product. VHS simply offered a wider appeal and took the market by storm. Fast forward (:D ) 30 years and I actually don't know anybody with a video recorder. Even really old people.
What society didn't do was take a retrograde step and go back to cine-cameras like Super 8 from the previous generation.
We have ended up with all of the above capability and lots more on your phone.

Out of interest how do people see the next 5 -10 years going. I know about Hydrogen and Synthetic fuels.
Yet none of the major manufacturers appear to have made these a more viable option than electric or fossil?
So what' do folk realistically think is coming next?

[Polarsilver]

Porsche has stated their intentional to use synthetic fuel on almost All their future production ..cars including old dog Porsche classic cars they will be able to use this fuel.. Porsche will also make EV,s to satisfy that market as well .. just a shame that other car makers do not follow this policy .
Politicians & their policy changes come & go every few years by design or they have cocked up yet again .. leaving the public to become the current Betamax and us Tax Payers to pay out yet again to make the changes.(ref Diesel Cars + Gas Home Boilers + Low emission zones as a few examples)
Should i want an EV lets say i buy a MINI ..But not just now as i would struggle to visit family on a return one day trip without stopping to charge my Electric MINI .. big issue is there is NO where to charge an EV along that route.
synthetic fuel is the future .. nuf said