It’s looking like 2030 for E-day

[mab01uk]

Interesting to read this comparison below of the speed of the transition from horses to cars as the main means of transport in the early 1900s....

The EV Transition Could Mirror The Horse To Model T Transition
"Analysis of past technological shifts indicates that, once a certain threshold is reached, the transition could take place at surprising speed. It is surprising how fast cars replaced horses as the main means of transport in the early 1900s. It happened in only 10 to 15 years in spite of many hurdles much higher than the barriers to adopting electric vehicles are today. In 1910 there were few paved roads and petrol was hard to find — today’s infrastructure of refineries and petrol stations didn’t exist. A decade later things looked quite different, governments and the oil industry were investing huge sums in roads and other infrastructure. In 1921 the Ford Model T was selling a million units a year. By 1925 annual sales were approaching two million. Making the switch to an electric car is much simpler than swapping the bag of oats for the fuel pump was a century ago. Furthermore, there are several technological and geopolitical trends that are combining to turbocharge the gathering electromobility revolution. One is the rise of China which is struggling to deal with choking air pollution and has global ambitions for its auto industry. Another is the advent of vehicle autonomy, which some believe will make transportation so cheap that few will want to own their own vehicles anymore. The shift will have little to do with climate change or government regulations — it will be a simple matter of cost and convenience."
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/10/07/ev ... ransition/

[MiNiKiN]

Hi John, I added my thoughts, facts and questions to your statements below.

Does the grid currently go down when all at the same time switch on their cookers at noon or after work?

That doesn't happen because people don't have the skills to use them - They call for a takeaway
The food bank in Carlisle is complaining they can't give some food away because people don't know how to cook it
maybe in UK nowadays [despite Jamie Oliver ], here on the Mid EU mainland we cook, and the lights have yet not gone out or the grid broken - in actual fact there is plenty of studies and statements from energy suppliers where they state to cope with increasing demand. Secondly I am sure measures will be taken to spread the load over the day (buffers along with variing tariffs)
Fun fact, or actually not at all: No one seems to ask how much energy currently goes into petrol production (i.e. oil recovery, transport and refining into fuel. It is an ginormous amount

I suppose these electric cars will be brought from the Far East on the massive ships that pollute the planet more
with one voyage than all the cars in the U.K. does in a year
All the petrol and diesel cars come from the UK of course and have never been shipped from somewhere
And yes the ships pollute about as much as the cars - so buy less stuff and keep longer, as most has lots of embodied energy in it. I hope you are being a good anti-consumerism role model - yes, if I take into account keeping old cars alive

I wonder how far an electric ship could travel before it needs to call in for a few months to car it's battery
The 4 year old Nissan Note tested by Top Gear had a range of 23 miles, not good for a trade in
You lough, suppose above makes you chuckle as you realise the nonsense yourself. 310kmiles Tesla battery had still 86% capacity. Top gear (as much as I liked them, except Clarkson) are just EV bashing because they are stooges of the petro-chemical industry as such

How are these batteries going to be disposed of ?
They are not disposed of, they are used for stationary battery packs, etc. in their after-car-life. Afterwards, i.e. after 15-20 years of life they are recycled and materials go back into the manufacturing process.

I've been told the sourcing of materials for the manufacture these batteries isn't very eco friendly
You have been told rightly, often primary production is neither eco-friendly nor very social. That needs to and is already addressed by the manufacturers of batteries and EV's.
On the other hand, the rare earth Lithium isn't rare at all and problematic COBALT: only 20% of its current production goes into car-batteries, the rest is used for batteries in mobile devices (phone, laptop, ...), refining oil[!] and steel production. Have you ever moaned about eco-frienlyness of the latter 3 product groups?

I have a friend who runs his Allegro on LPG maybe that's an alternative
I'll be 82 in 2030 so it won't will be a problem for me
Glad I've been fortunate enough to have lived at a good time - I agree and say the same about me, aged 50 but as Bob Dylan sings "The Times They Are A-Changin"

EVs are one step towards a change in attidude where people have to realise that current individual transport (i.e. where everyone has his/her own car) is a thing from the past. You simply cannot motorise all the population in the world. Too less resources is just one of many reasons..
BTW: Sorry for my environmentalist and EV-expert me popping up - take care!

[Andrew1967]

Looks like I'll have buy an early retirement present for myself now, rather than in 2035

Tell people something for long enough and eventually they'll believe it, time will prove whether its right or not ...

[Exminiman]

Does look like the writing is on the wall, can see that its very likely that fuel will get more expensive, as requirement drops, but standing costs stay the same.....unless, maybe the government decides to take less tax on fuel

[mab01uk]

Hybrids are a stop gap and the worst of all worlds – ICE engine, gearbox, electric motor & batteries all adding weight & complexity, but are going to be a popular choice for some time while range remains the issue with pure electric and until there is more and faster charging infrastructure.

EV running costs that are not always considered:-
What Car? say "Some car manufacturers offer the option of leasing the car’s batteries rather than buying them to keep the price of their EVs down. If the battery is leased and its capacity drops below 75% of its original rate, it will be replaced for free. Running costs that are not always considered for a new EV vary depending on how many miles the car is going to do. A driver doing 6000 miles a year in a new Renault Zoe ZE 40 will pay approx £59 a month to lease the batteries; this rises to £99 a month for a car doing 10,500 miles a year. Excess mileage is charged at 8p per mile, and the lease periods are generally three years, the same as most PCP new car buying deals. For a used EV, the majority of cars are likely to have leased batteries. Rather than leasing the batteries on a second-hand purchase, it’s possible to buy the battery outright with the car – we’ve seen reports of people buying four-year-old cars and paying around £3500 extra to buy the battery, (but if/when it fails......) "The lifespan of the battery pack depends on how much it’s charged. You can extend the life of the batteries by only charging them up to 80% and trying not to let them drop below 50% too often."

However it might be worth parking your valuable ICE Mini a good distance away from the EV parking bays...
China - Electric vehicle fire while charging.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2F9HKZ5VzA

[miniminor]

Im going to have to scratch the V8 itch sooner than later then.....

[mk1coopers]

I'll be happy to have a EV for the local trips, as long as I can still use the Mini's (which by now with their lower use have a minimal impact) plus something very silly and V8'e for fun, I'm surprised there has not been a mass release of data by some of the (cough Greta) usual suspects to show how much the planets emissions have dropped during lockdown and how it's had such a great impact in a short time because it's been a perfect situation to prove the science with the reduction in car use, which always seems to get the 'blame' , perhaps the improvements have not been as good as they predicted

[hanlminiman]

Believe it or not I can still get 4 star fuel locally; for a price! But then, how much is "super unleaded?" and how many miles do I travel on my limited mileage insurance policy each year? I still have electricity supplied by aerial wires across my garden with local residents charging their mobility vehicles at home. The local hotels have charging points but not the local authority; no public car parks! Just thinking out loud. Oh yes, the hotels are closed. But then I'm in the "vulnerable age group." So what do I know?

[mab01uk]

I'm surprised there has not been a mass release of data by some of the (cough Greta) usual suspects to show how much the planets emissions have dropped during lockdown and how it's had such a great impact in a short time because it's been a perfect situation to prove the science with the reduction in car use, which always seems to get the 'blame' , perhaps the improvements have not been as good as they predicted

I was thinking the same, as when aircraft were grounded after the 9/11 attack, soon after on TV there was a in depth scientific documentary which showed how much the atmosphere, etc had improved during the short period without the effects of aircraft pollution. With the much longer lockdown of the aircraft and travel industry you would think there would be much bigger improvements this time to promote the cause for change?

[MiNiKiN]

We did have reports of reduced pollution during lock-down - although you had to look for these, because from C-Day (i.e. when Covid arrived) there weren't any other newsthan Covid19 and the important environmental actions, news and protest literally disappeared in the publics agenda overnight.

[SMOKE GREY]

I for my sins work for Porsche, who make a statement that of all the cars they have made in the last 70 years, 72% of them are still on the road They are 3 years into developing a new clean fuel to keep all classics running and to be widely available. Price per litre is currently high but they are confident this is going to be coming down. Be interesting to see, they are committed to it and already have a couple of their classics running on it.

[Pete]

Imagine what’ll happen to the national grid when we all get electric cars and plug them all in at home after work. . Not that most people have off road parking anyway, or will be able to afford one.

Does the grid currently go down when all at the same time switch on their cookers at noon or after work?

They’ll be doing that ASWELL as charging all their cars, millions of us, that’s kind of the point I was making.

[Pete]

EVs are one step towards a change in attidude where people have to realise that current individual transport (i.e. where everyone has his/her own car) is a thing from the past. You simply cannot motorise all the population in the world. Too less resources is just one of many reasons..
BTW: Sorry for my environmentalist and EV-expert me popping up - take care!
[/quote]

How does having an EV stop people having their own individual vehicles? I see no correlation.

Environmentalists rarely talk about air travel, one one of the biggest polluters, usually because I assume they’re not prepared to make sacrifices on that level, or talk about consumerism generally. It’s quite ironic to listen to people like Lewis Hamilton for example lecturing the peasants about pollution, a man with a bigger carbon footprint than your average town! I think commuter travel will drop anyway in the future as so many people will start to work from home, illustrated and brought on very much by the Covid lock downs. Either way a ban by 2030 I think is unrealistic, the battery range/ life, the cost, infrastructure and charging issues just will not be resolved by then and I expect strong resistance unless it is.

[AndyPen]

Just working out how to run my collection on cow farts - there will be a huge market I'm sure

I have in my mind's eye the many classic car owners on their nightly wanderings over meadows, collecting cow farts in huge plastic sacks to be made into petrol in their illicit cellar refinery.

Doh! Gotta figure out how to make jute gas tight, as plastic bags are going to be banned by then too

BTW: I think the ICE new car sales ban is a good thing.

We may have a solution - scientists using bubble test systems suggest we may secure flatulence power in time, by capturing cow farts in bubbles. Boris has announced the experiments are ongoing amongst mini owners

flatulence-tests.jpg

[Exminiman]

Planes are an issue and also ships, not sure which to which Country the emissions from ships are attributed, if any, as most will sail under a flag of conveniance.

Here is a report from the BBC (AKA, The Guardian, these days ) , where its claimed that the shipping industry produces as much emissions as the whole of Germany. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-43714029

I find this quite shocking that, it seems this is being ignored, because no one seems to be responsible for it, while the man in the street is being penalised.

[Spider]

Interesting discussion guys.

I can't help think that the drive towards EVs is largely political rather than anything technical or environmental. As already mentioned here, vehicles only contribute such small numbers in terms of pollution and adding to climate change - that 'thing' that's been changing for the last 4 billion + years. I haven't heard any of those who insist we wipe out IC Vehicles, in favour of EVs address the total product cycle and all the 'damage' that will do vs an IC vehicle.

There's clearly a strong drive to go all electric and it might reach that goal at some point, and there won't be any IC Vehicles made anywhere. That may well suit most of the world, however I can't see how the likes of us in Australia will get on. In cities, it's fine, we'd cope as well as anywhere else, but we have a huge country, the same land area as the US, but with a small population of circa 25 million, as a result, we have a great many areas that are unpopulated or have very low population and big distances in between, some in excess of 1000 km, and loads that are around 200 km between drinks. I guess they could build solar charging stations for these remote locations, wind would be useless but who's going to fund them and also look after them ? What if I arrived at say (the town of) Nullabor (population 50) on the last electron in my batteries only to find the charging station is out of order? The next town is around 300 km away and with a similar population so it would likely only have one 'filling' station too. For safety, these cars for us would have to have a range of 1000 km.

We also have a huge amount of freight trucked around the country and much of it to some very remote Cattle Stations and Communities. How will this work ?

EVs might well be feasible for much of the world, but on current technology and that as far as I can see in the future, will fall a very long way short to suit us and a small handful of other countries, who like us, won't be able to buy cars to get us around. It will drive Australia back to the stone age.

[richardACS]

What a great way to sabotage a country - 'chuck your bike over the fence' (thanks Michael) into the generating station and it puts out your lights, phones, transport, fridges, ovens and hot water well just about everything!

[mab01uk]

News reports are already suggesting the value of new and used petrol/diesel car is immediately dropping after the 2030 deadline announcement. Diesel car sales have already dropped due to environmental pressure and new emissions laws in recent years. I would think this is also going to make a lot of people hang on to the vehicle they already have for longer to see how things pan out before investing in another new or used car if not essential. That can't be good for the car industry already suffering from financial losses due to the Corona virus, especially if they don't have their production already geared up for a major switch in demand to hybrid and EV's. (An announcement earlier this year planned to ban the sale of new hybrid vehicles from 2035). While you won't have to scrap your ICE vehicle as soon as 2030 comes around, companies are rolling out scrappage schemes across the UK for high-emitting vehicles. Most offer money off a newer car that's less polluting, apparently Mazda is offering up to £5,500 off a new model if your car is registered before 31 December 2009. As before with the previous UK scrappage scheme how does scrapping a perfectly serviceable car manufactured before 2010 help the environment when we are told the manufacture and disposal of a car is one of the biggest parts of it carbon footprint?

[swifty]

As I've said in a earlier post . The vehicles are not being scrapped under the scheme , as in taken apart and destroyed . They are going to third world countries and being used . I've had many scrap yards in earlier years and have dealt with exporters of our high emission scrap vans /HGVs . We used to get around the export laws by cutting the roofs off . They are then classed as spares and not a vehicle . ..This has been going on for years and still does .... ken

[scalino65]

I for my sins work for Porsche, who make a statement that of all the cars they have made in the last 70 years, 72% of them are still on the road They are 3 years into developing a new clean fuel to keep all classics running and to be widely available. Price per litre is currently high but they are confident this is going to be coming down. Be interesting to see, they are committed to it and already have a couple of their classics running on it.

Thank you for mentioning this as I hadnt heard about it.
I found a bit more info here which might interest others.
https://www.automotiveworld.com/news-re ... tic-fuels/