It’s looking like 2030 for E-day

[mab01uk]

Independent motor factors and garages will have to change but will they be able to adapt or eventually be squeezed out of the market with electric cars as ICE cars reduce in numbers?

[Rolandino]

What about Lorries? I havn't seen an "electric HGV". And planes ? What about people who wont be able to afford a new electric car? Its going to be a complete mess.

[GraemeC]

Tesla produce an E-HGV.

Not heard of any planes yet - I guess the problem there would be the fact that weight doesn't reduce the same as it does when fuel is burnt, probably making them much less efficient and maybe reducing the travel distances.

By the time we get to 2030 (if that's when it actually happens) those that are in the market for a brand new car will probably find they are no less affordable than the previous IC models.

[MiNiKiN]

Sadly there are so many myths and misconceptions about EVs around. The thing is you cannot just focus on the replacement of ICEs with EVs.
You have to look at and develop the bigger picture. Changes will happen, and EVs are one of them. It requires more change such as a switch to more sustainable Energy, local energy production and storage (e.g. in car batteries or stationary batteries) rather than central, shared and autonomous vehicles (for which EVs compared to ICEs are the easier to adapt basis) along with so called multi-modal transport (i.e. using public transport in combination with car sharing, bicycle, ...).

I have been professionally researching these scenarios and can tell you it is anything but a catastrophy, it is a big opportunity. Just needs the politicians and public to open their minds, to develop the coherent concepts, create the incentives and put these into reality.

Lorries: Tesla has a battery powered lorry in development namely the Semi and Megacharger) and Nicola a hydrogen powered one.

Planes: either they are going to change to alternative fuels and/or smaller electric ones have already been tested, like the Siemens powered airplane (branch now sold to Rolls Royce) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIM3pgxHVIM
or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe1g1JrRRkY

I love to watch Robert Llewellyn's "Fully Charged" on YouTube, which deals with all sorts of alternative energy and electric transport. Great watch, both interesting and educational. BTW: Johnny Smith, is also a presenter of Fully Charged - he - like I - has a faible for classic and electric vehicles - I like him very much

[MiNiKiN]

N.B. because it is always (and partially rightly so) claimed how expensive and un-afforable EVs are for the average income classes:

Chinese manufacturer SUDA has homologated and started import of their medium sized EV to Germany - it has a 40kW battery and costs from 18,000EUR before state incentives - looks a bit like a Dacia - but not bad at all. http://www.sudacar.cn/en/
What I want to say is, that by 2030 competition and development of batteries will show a completely different picture to now.

[Polarsilver]

I open my mind & ask ..What happens when the supply of Electricity becomes restricted.. as can happen due to natural events such as earth quake & other disaters that nature can supply? ..then we should consider Employee unrest Strikes , Sabotage, War & Hostility .. etc etc .. there are may ways to stop the supply of electricity distribution & prevent any well intentioned Country infrastructure from working in this so called digital age .. it not just my electric car that will stop some where up the M6 the Phone & Laptop can also run out of charge while i am awaiting rescue ..any country that is so called Green may become an easy target from any outside dodgy influence that perhaps being this method of Green is not the best way forward for their own Population.

Maybe conversation ..
Boris the peasants are revolting .. Frankly my dear i dont give a dam as i wont be in 10 Downing Street in 2030

[MiNiKiN]

I open my mind & ask ..What happens when the supply of Electricity becomes restricted.. as can happen due to natural events such as earth quake & other disaters that nature can supply? ..then we should consider Employee unrest Strikes , Sabotage, War & Hostility .. etc etc .. there are may ways to stop the supply of electricity distribution & prevent any well intentioned Country infrastructure from working in this so called digital age .. it not just my electric car that will stop some where up the M6 the Phone & Laptop can also run out of charge while i am awaiting rescue ..any country that is so called Green may become an easy target from any outside dodgy influence that perhaps being this method of Green is not the best way forward for their own Population.

Maybe conversation ..
Boris the peasants are revolting .. Frankly my dear i dont give a dam as i wont be in 10 Downing Street in 2030

Where is the difference to now? Our society is already very vulnerable to such events. A little power outage for a couple of days and you have a mayhem.
This is one of many reasons, why I and experts of bigger format say that it is necessary to produce and store powerin smaller grids.
As it is easier to target one big production centre, than hundreds of smaller ones. As simple as that.
Downside is of course, if you want de-centralised power generation you need smart grids, which are even more vulnerable to attack, if not protected accordingly. Difficult to not get into a catch 22 situation.

[ads7]

Ive done a little work as an energy consultant in the past. As you rightly say large on site batteries are key as is a smart grid. Demand for power in general is ever rising so these improvements are inevitable.

If you've got a million quid kicking around and a medium sized factory etc. to utilise a battery the size of an Arctic container yud more than double your investment in around years. Economies of scale will bring costs down across the board including EVs sooner than you might think.

As mentioned EV lorries make a lot of sense as they can carry a lot of battery around with huge available torque

[and.rs1800]

What about Lorries? I havn't seen an "electric HGV". And planes ? What about people who wont be able to afford a new electric car? Its going to be a complete mess.

I drive a 32 ton tipper/grab lorry,it’s payload is just under 16 tons.this type of vehicle is essential in construction and utility work,and is not going to be replaced by a battery powered version anytime soon.can you imagine the weight of the batteries needed to power this and also power the crane on site.it also has to do some serious off roading up to it’s axles in mud.
It’s a modern euro 6 motor with a 400 bhp lump and in the 200,000 miles I’ve done in it since it was new,it’s averaged 5.6mpg-that tells you all you need to know about how hard it has to work.
People keep on about Tesla’s hgv-maybe for urban distribution-not in construction/long distance or heavy haulage any time soon!!

[JohnA]

Why the mad rush to go electric?
There was a program on TV a few days ago that featured a large city in China were almost all the vehicles including trucks and buses ran on Hydrogen, they also showed the same in Japan
Are we jumping the gun here ? there are alternative eco friendly ways to power vehicles still being developed
Are motor vehicles that much off a problem other than in cities
I've went shopping today so I thought after following this thread I'd look at the fruit and veg
Countries that it had to have been flown in from included
Thailand
India
Mexico
Guatemala
Peru
Brazil
Flowers are also flown from Africa
I don't see how things are going to improve until there are changes to capitalism and globalisation
International global companies are now so rich and powerful (and they pay minimal taxes) that they can influence government
policies, many politicians are involved with these companies
The main problem is there are too many people on the planet and until we can address this the planet will continue to distruct

[and.rs1800]

As mentioned EV lorries make a lot of sense as they can carry a lot of battery around with huge available torque

No they do not make a lot of sense at all.if they carry “a lot of battery” they are losing payload.
No batteries can provide the range or power needed unless the vehicle has next to no payload.
Not very eco friendly then is it?
Then how do yo recharge the thing?it won’t be a quick 30 mins in the services will it? No two ways about it.there is no viable alternative in the near or quite distant future to the high torque high power diesel engine for hauling stuff around in large quantities over large distances.

[111Robin]

Unfortunately this just appears to be a bandwagon that everyone wants to jump on to demonstrate how "green" they are. Why don't governments provide incentives for keeping older cars on the roads as opposed to yet more manufacturing plants that by default result in masses of environmental impact ?. It surely must be better for the environment to run existing ICE vehicles for more years than churn out millions of new vehicles every year ?. The industries already exist for manufacturing replacement parts to keep cars running indefinitely (until hydrocarbons run out anyway but that is a long, long time away). If they want to utilise electricity, move more freight onto the railways, invest more on the rail network to make it more efficient such that businesses can use it effectively. By all means promote EV use in densely populated areas where it can be a definite advantage and managed far more easily. This definitely should not just be a blanket ban on all ICE vehicles, that's just the easiest way out on paper but in reality is far from practical on a worldwide basis. It seems to me that promoting "green" products is just another means of generating more business to keep the big conglomerates profit margins up. Maybe I'm just a cynic but I'm not buying into all of this hype.

[JohnA]

Spot on Robin, I totally agree

[Andrew1967]

Me too John.

As for recycling batteries ... a forum member told me of a friend of his who runs a taxi business down south. He runs Priuses and has a big pile of knackered batteries that he can’t get rid of because no one will take them.

Also, £3500+ for new batteries for older cars ( say 7 yrs or so) ... who is realistically going to pay that ? Scrap the car and buy a new one on PCP. So, more new cars, more production pollution.

Things will inevitably improve with technology I’ll agree but I can see it being a huge scandal in years to come. Governments will only tell us what they want us to know and believe and conveniently omit the things they don’t want us to know.

['S'-type]

These are the same people that persuaded people that diesels were the future. The same people that tell us HS2 is necessary but won't be around to answer for the massive overspend. Weapons of mass destruction. Advantageous PPE contracts for their friends etc, etc.

Politicians are just part of the racket, or to give them the benefit of the doubt, they don't know what they're doing.
2030 is an easy sound bite policy to appease the climate lobby but as with most things it hasn't been thought through properly.
Still it will keep the sanctimonious snowflakes happy thinking that they are doing their bit when driving their Teslas. So long as they can still jet across the world on holiday it'll be alright.
Chelsea chariots today Teslas tomorrow.

[111Robin]

I bet the billionaires are already ordering their electric super yachts, to demonstrate how much they care about the environment. It'll be all over social media and they will be lauded for their efforts to the cause. Meanwhile Joe Schmo will be sitting on the hard shoulder with his wife giving birth, cursing the fact that the car only got to 10% charge when she went into labour. I suppose he could also have left on a nearly empty tank of fuel, but he is more likely to have a spare gallon in the boot than a few spare kW of juice. Again, call me a cynic but......... "I'm out"

[mab01uk]

Maths question:-
In 2030 new petrol and diesel cars go and hybrids are allowed another 5yrs until 2035.
According to the SMMT the average age of a vehicle on UK roads in 2015 was 7.8 years and the average age of a car at scrappage reached 13.9 years.
Based on those figures when will petrol stations become obsolete/uneconomic/or worth more sold as a building site?

[GeorgeA]

So for E-day what happens to the diesel generators that power electric charging stations in remote locations where there electrical infrastructure can't handle a charging station.

"Free diesel generator with every purchase" or is this part of the optional extra list when you buy a new car in these locations
Top Gears episode on this covers it well. Paddys Leaf with its limited range took 6 hrs to charge plugging into a house that was not equipped with a supercharge station.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... -episode-2

[ads7]

Why the mad rush to go electric?
There was a program on TV a few days ago that featured a large city in China were almost all the vehicles including trucks and buses ran on Hydrogen, they also showed the same in Japan
Are we jumping the gun here ? there are alternative eco friendly ways to power vehicles still being developed
Are motor vehicles that much off a problem other than in cities
I've went shopping today so I thought after following this thread I'd look at the fruit and veg
Countries that it had to have been flown in from included
Thailand
India
Mexico
Guatemala
Peru
Brazil
Flowers are also flown from Africa
I don't see how things are going to improve until there are changes to capitalism and globalisation
International global companies are now so rich and powerful (and they pay minimal taxes) that they can influence government
policies, many politicians are involved with these companies
The main problem is there are too many people on the planet and until we can address this the planet will continue to distruct

Absolutely.
Hydrogen is very promising.
HS2 is basically a vehicle to make a s**tload of cash for ex public schoolboys with behind closed doors handshakes. The financial divide is ever widening and the proletariat will never stop it. The City is up to its eyeballs in filthy cash laundering on a massive scale.

Anyone watched the spiders Web on YouTube?

https://youtu.be/5uM2cdhfAGA

Finally yes roughly six times as many humans on the planet than there should be which is why the earth as an organism is coming up with all sorts of ways to control our activity.

I'll get off my soapbox now

[WMU 211G]

For a bit of balance, HS2 is needed whatever anyone thinks of it and the people behind it. Why? I'll tell you.... sadly it has been promoted as just as a high speed line and not on the capacity issue. I drive trains on the West Coast Mainline, Midland Mainline and parts of the old Great Western and I can tell you that the extra capacity that HS2 will provide is very much needed, despite the (current) lower passenger numbers due to covid. Traffic levels and requirements are on the rise, the southern half of the WCML in particular is already at full capacity and when post covid life returns to normal it will reach bursting point. The idea of simply adding extra lines along the existing route was looked into but the bottlenecks through the towns and cities along the route would render that idea pointless, hence why HS2 is being built on a separate alignment, with much of it in tunnels.

Putting the higher speed passenger traffic onto the new route will allow more pathing for regular freight and passenger traffic on the WCML, running at consistent speeds which in turn will allow a more frequent service pattern.

Mild off topic rant over, as you were!