Global warming and classic cars

[snoopy64]

I’ve spent most of this week in most of the UK heavy forging companies… my 998 is the least of the world’s problems!!

[Old English White]

Horses and classic cars! Yes, I agree. It's a good comparison

[hanlminiman]

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner? I wonder how the current cyclists and environmentalists would have coped with all the horses manure in and around London, especially Fleet Street & Ludgate Hill. Good for the roses in St Paul's Churchyard though.

[apblake]

I think that by around 2035 no more gasoline powered cars will be produced. Then after another roughly 15 years the existing gasoline fleet will be worn out and retired. I’m also a believer that Elon Musk’s recently unveiled master plan 3 is roughly accurate and that by 2050 earth will be 100% sustainable. So in other words use of gasoline by 2050 will be almost nothing. Maybe 99% lower than today or 99.9% lower. At that point it makes me think that buying gas for a classic will be something like buying leaded race fuel in the United States today. You can get it, but you have to find a Sunoco that sells it in 5 gallon containers for $100 ($20/gallon). So buying gas will be very expensive and inconvenient.

The next big factor is self driving. At least in wealthy countries I believe that self driving cars will be a reality quite soon. Once that happens, anybody who can afford to buy a self driving car for their children will do so when they learn to “drive” because it will be orders of magnitude safer than driving yourself. Slowly, just as the majority of the population in the United States doesn’t know how to drive a stick shift, a huge proportion of the population won’t really know how to drive.

Put together the almost certain dramatic cost increase in driving a classic car (due to higher gas prices at the very least, not to mention any potential carbon use taxes/anti-pollution taxes like what already exists in London), with the inconvenience and difficulty of using a classic car (hard to get fuel and not only will you need to be able to drive a stick shift but you’ll have to know how to drive at all), and it’s hard to see how the hobby doesn’t shrink.

It seems like there will be a bifurcation in the existing classic car market. Demand shrinks and costs go up so the lower end cars go away. What survives are the higher end cars which continue to increase in value. Where that line gets drawn I have no idea.

[mk1coopers]

The above, apart from the sustainability part, which would be of benefit, all sounds very depressing.

Why can we not reach a point where the human race is having a negligible effect on the planet, then still maintain a large element of individuality and freedom of movement / choice rather than be increasingly controlled and taxed to further divide the population into the have and have nots.

I count myself very lucky to have the lifestyle I have, this has not been given to me, I’ve worked for it, I was recently called ‘privileged’, which I found quite offensive, so I politely explained to the person that where I am now was not where I started, which, for some reason, came as a surprise to the person making assumptions.

Unfortunately inequality is a issue, as is the attitudes of some that would rather take than contribute, however no one that has worked for what they have, be it for a goal that would appear ‘materialistic’ to others, or just to get to a point where they can live a life that suits their preferences, should feel guilty about having achieved that goal.

Let’s have a sustainable planet, where people still have opportunities and choices.

[Pete]

I wouldn’t take too much notice of Elon Musk, bit like listening to Pablo Escobar’s forecast for drug sales. Electrification isn’t even coming to most parts of the U.K. at any rate of knots whatsoever so his predictions for the rest of the world look ambitious at the very best, outa town in reality.
Meanwhile air travel is still hardly ever mentioned on the media, doesn’t suit them to talk about the elephant in the room, especially in the US where catching a plane is like catching a bus!

[Exminiman]

I think ICE engines in one form or another will be with us for a long time yet and in large numbers.

Maybe electrification in European cities or the US, but the rest of the World ?

Its just not practical or profitable, many countries still don't have reliable electricity sources or even water….

[apblake]

On the individuality component I would love for us to continue to be able to exercise our individual liberties with regards to cars and driving that we have today. But, I think even without any government interference we are likely to see most people give them up voluntarily.

At some point I think it’s possible that self driving will become like seat belts where eventually all new cars are required to have it and then in many places people will be required to use it. Even if the government doesn’t mandate it though, people will want it for the safety aspects. Even today it is 5x safer than driving yourself and that gap is going to just continue to widen. But, in the US at least historically nobody has said you can’t drive cars that were sold in the past (California being a notable exception) so I’m still totally fine to go drive a car that was built without seatbelts if I want to (even when seatbelts are required by law to be worn).

But, once you have a generation of people who see self driving as just inherently way more safe, people are going to be a lot less comfortable driving themselves in anything (people just won’t know how to do it).

[Pete]

Driverless cars? More chance of this catching on…

[Exminiman]

It’s really down to the insurance companies

[SMOKE GREY]

Self driving cars won’t work on our pot holed and worn out, worn Road marking roads. As for electric cars, I’ve worked in main dealers for 36 years. They are a temporary thing and will be looked back on as un green , mark my words

[Pete]

I’m inclined to agree Steve!

[111Robin]

Will self drive cars still be able to tailgate ?. If not I think a lot of people will not be able to deal with them as it seems to be the pastime of the majority of morons on the roads these days. If the ability to act like an idiot on the roads is removed where will they vent their aggression?. As long as there is an automatic "brake test" function then all will be fine Perhaps you will be able to select a specific intelligence level to match the driver to ensure the car drives as they would ?. A mode where it doesn't signal, pulls out in front of you at junctions and tailgates the car in front would be very popular.

[johnv]

Self drive cars won't work until they're all self drive. ATM they'd be waiting at a busy junction all day until another one came along and let them out.
I'm sure you could use ordinary cars as sheepdogs as well, and herd them all into a field?

[MiNiKiN]

Self driving cars won’t work on our pot holed and worn out, worn Road marking roads. As for electric cars, I’ve worked in main dealers for 36 years. They are a temporary thing and will be looked back on as un green , mark my words

Foolish Tech Predictions - No.2:
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

Foolish Tech Predictions - No. 3:
“Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet’s continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”
Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995

You are in good company, no worries.

[Exminiman]

Self driving cars won’t work on our pot holed and worn out, worn Road marking roads. As for electric cars, I’ve worked in main dealers for 36 years. They are a temporary thing and will be looked back on as un green , mark my words

Foolish Tech Predictions - No.2:
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

Foolish Tech Predictions - No. 3:
“Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet’s continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”
Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995

You are in good company, no worries.

Come on thats not fair, I am sure we can all think of a number of "Foolish Tech Predictions" to suit our point of view.....one way or the other..

[Pete]

Pretty rude too.

[mab01uk]

Come on thats not fair, I am sure we can all think of a number of "Foolish Tech Predictions" to suit our point of view.....one way or the other..

[MiNiKiN]

Pretty rude too.

how come you think this to be rude
I thougt the banter came across as such